ACM：日本的政治动荡引亚洲股市下跌

ACM：日本的政治动荡引亚洲股市下跌 更新时间：2010-6-3 0:02:10 今日汇评：

昨天美元兑日元从90.94上升到91.79，欧元兑日元升至112.50，而日本股市上涨，出口商表示首相鸠山选举前不到2个月他将下台。日经指数上涨0.4％，至9,747.54，而摩根士丹利资本国际亚太扭转指数变动不大下降1.1％。标准普尔500指数下滑1.7％，因英国石油公司未能堵塞泄漏的墨西哥湾油井拖累能源生产国和在中东地区的紧张局势。

澳大利亚国内生产总值增长0.5％和2.7％年均为连续第五个季度预期，因政府的刺激支出推动消费需求，柜台后的积极加息削弱。澳元兑美元昨日持稳，今日上涨至0.8367，因投资者押注澳洲央行可能恢复在未来几个月内提高利率，短期内澳大利亚的货币政策的制定是适当的。史蒂文斯预计国内生产总值国内生产总值将增长4％到2012年底，亚洲商品的需求和就业机会的经济兴旺，已使失业率下降到大约美国和欧洲的一半。政府在基础设施投资2010年第一季度猛增11.6％，且家庭支出放缓至0.6％。

欧元兑美元在1.2229下跌0.6％后，同期下降了1.6％，触及1.2111，是2006年4月以来的最低，因美国股市下跌，和担心努力削减预算赤字将阻碍欧洲经济复苏，避险需求出发令投资者远离高风险货币。欧盟的失业率也增加至10.1％打压欧元，为1998年6月以来的最高水平。欧洲央行昨天表示，今年欧洲的银行将要注销的贷款比2009年多，出售债券的能力可能会受到限制。欧元兑美元回升4年低点上方，5月10日的一份报告显示，美国制造业1月份增长，欧元兑美元在跌破1.2134，50之间。根据技术指标标志着欧美有可能进一步下降至1.1640，这将是2005年11月以来的最低水平。欧元兑英镑1.4％至0.8348，2008年12月以来的最低触摸0.8324，而英镑兑美元0.8％至1.4651，报告显示英国房价的最大年度涨幅已超过30个月，在制造业中超过15年最强。

美国ISM制造业指数下降至59.7低于预期。报告还说制造业增长乐观，消费支出可能会较为强劲，足以帮助美国免受欧洲债务危机的任何影响。中银昨天成为第一个七国集团央行提高利率自2008年7月以来，当州长马克卡尼提高目标利率至0.5％的纪录新低0.25％。美元兑加元上涨1％，至1.0554后失去先前0.2％。

The USDJPY rose to 91.79 from 90.94 yesterday EURJPY rose to 112.50 while Japanese shares climbed, led by exporters after Prime Minister Hatoyama said he would step down less than two months before elections. The Nikkei rose 0.4% to 9,747.54, reversing from a decline of 1.1% while MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. S&P 500 Index slid 1.7% as BP’s failure to plug a leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico dragged down energy producers and on tensions in the Middle East.

Australia’s GDP rose 0.5% and 2.7% annualized as expected for a fifth straight quarter as government stimulus spending helped counter consumer demand that weakened after the aggressive interest-rate increases. AUDUSD rose to 0.8367 after today’s report as investors bet the RBA may resume raising interest rates in the coming months after pausing yesterday for the first time in four meetings and said Australia’s monetary policy setting is “appropriate for the near term.” RBA’s Stevens predicts GDP growth will accelerate to 4% by the end of 2012, citing surging Asian demand for commodities and a jobs boom that has pushed down unemployment to around half that of the US and Europe. Government investment in infrastructure surged 11.6% in Q1 2010 and household spending slowed to 0.6% .

The EURUSD traded at 1.2229 down 0.6% after it earlier fell 1.6% and touched 1.2111, the weakest since April 2006 as a tumble in US stocks and concern that efforts to cut budget deficits will hamper Europe’s economic revival damped investor appetite for riskier assets. The EUR also fell as EU jobless rate increased to 10.1%, the highest rate since June 1998 and ECB said yesterday that Europe’s banks will have to write off more loans this year than in 2009 and their ability to sell bonds may be curtailed by governments seeking to finance fiscal deficits. The EURUSD earlier recovered from a four-year low as a report showed US manufacturing grew for a 10th month in May, the highest in almost six years. The EURUSD’s drop below 1.2134, 50% line between the all time high and low of 0.8230 in October 2000 and 1.6038 in July 2008, signals a further decline to 1.1640, according to technicals, which would be the lowest level since November 2005. The EURGBP 1.4% to 0.8348 after touching 0.8324, the weakest since December 2008 while GBPUSD strengthened 0.8% to 1.4651 after reports showed UK house prices had their biggest annual gain in more than 30 months and manufacturing held at the strongest level in more than 15 years.

The US ISM manufacturing index declined less than forecast to 59.7 . The report added to optimism manufacturing growth and consumer spending may be strong enough to help the US weather any effects from the European debt crisis. The BOC yesterday became the first G7 central bank to raise interest rates since July 2008 when Governor Mark Carney increased the target rate to 0.5% from a record-low 0.25%. The USDCAD rose 1% to 1.0554 after losing 0.2% earlier.

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