ACM：每日国际金融市场分析（中英文对照）

ACM：每日国际金融市场分析 更新时间：2010-6-2 0:04:59 今日汇评：

随着欧元区信贷危机的加深，欧盟银行体系动摇，欧盟各国紧缩财政政策也将拖累欧元区经济的发展，欧元兑美元汇率下跌至1.2264，而欧元兑日元汇率下跌至111.65。欧元下跌之前，昨天一份报告预测显示意大利失业率上升至8.9％和欧盟消费者信心指数降至98.4。欧洲央行警告说，昨日因为该地区更多的银行损失，星光大道信贷危机蔓延。欧洲央行表示，在其两年一度的金融稳定报告银行昨天表示，欧盟可能会看到另一个90亿元，净写起伏这一年的贷款和证券欧元。放款人明年将需要大约105亿欧元的损失准备，这可能是Äúheightened主权更大的风险和可能的导致的第二轮财政整顿的影响，欧洲央行表示。亚洲货币下跌，因人们担心，中国可能会给全球经济增长放缓前景蒙上了一层阴影和SAP的高收益资产的需求。

澳元兑美元下跌14.8％至0.8394，在4月的第3个月的房屋建筑许可下降，今年增加的迹象，澳洲联储认为星光大道利率上升对住房的需求是阻碍。降房屋建筑许可给央行行长Glenn Stevens的范围，以保持在4.5％的利率不变今天。澳大利亚制造业增长56.3下降3.5点，从5月最快的速度在近8年来，由于新订单下降后，央行，星光大道的决定，推动10月以来第六次借贷成本，而上月库存下降8.8点至52.1，新订单下滑4.9点至54.6。澳大利亚零售销售增长0.6％的两倍经济学家估计的速度，4月消费者对食品和家庭用品的开支提高。国内生产总值增长可能放缓至0.6％据明天报告。

5月中国采购经理指数制造业扩张步伐放缓，下降到53.9，迹象表明经济增长可能放缓。政府打击炒楼稳定经济建设，而欧洲，星光大道的主权债务危机可能加剧，这将削减出口需求放缓。中国可能会延迟或提高基准利率，让人民币对美元升值后，即使经济在第一季度增长了11.9％。采购经理人指数跌幅可能会成为一个减速的早期迹象，但中国仍面临许多地区的经济过热的风险。产量下降至58.2，新订单下滑到54.8和投入下降到58.9。汇丰中国制造业指数下降至52.7 5月，为2009年6月以来的最低水平。中国决策者正在修整，在2009年1.4万亿美元的贷款是恢复今年增长，抑制通胀预期和保持住房价格合理。

The EURUSD fell to 1.2264 while EURJPY traded at 111.65 extending its longest monthly decline in 10 years on concerns Europe’s efforts to reduce budget deficits will derail the region’s economies as the credit crisis shakes the banking system. The EUR fell before a report forecast to show Italian unemployment increased to 8.9% and after an EU consumer sentiment index fell to 98.4 yesterday. The ECB warned yesterday of more bank losses as the region’s credit crisis spreads. The ECB said in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report yesterday that EU banks may see another 90 billion EUR in net write downs this year on loans and securities. The lenders will need to make provisions for losses of about 105 billion EUR next year, which may be even bigger amid “heightened sovereign risks and possible second-round effects of the fiscal consolidation,” the ECB said. Asian currencies declined on concerns that a slowdown in China may cloud prospects for global growth and sap demand for higher-yielding assets.

The AUDUSD fell to 0.8394 as home-building approvals dropped 14.8% in April for the third month this year, adding to signs the RBA’s interest-rate increases is damping demand for dwellings. Falling home-building approvals give RBA Governor Glenn Stevens scope to keep interest rates unchanged today at 4.5%. Australian manufacturing growth declined 3.5 points to 56.3 in May from the fastest pace in almost eight years, as new orders fell following the RBA’s decision to boost borrowing costs last month for the sixth time since October while inventories fell 8.8 points to 52.1 and new orders slipped 4.9 points to 54.6. Australian retail sales increased 0.6% in April at double the pace estimated by economists as consumers boosted spending on food and household goods. GDP growth probably slowed to 0.6% according to a report due tomorrow.

Chinese PMI manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May, falling to 53.9 , adding to signs that growth may moderate. A government crackdown on property speculation is cooling the economy by damping sales and construction, while Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis could exacerbate a slowdown by cutting export demand. China may delay raising benchmark interest rates or letting the Yuan appreciate against the USD even after the economy grew 11.9% in Q1. The fall in the headline PMI might be an early sign of a slowdown, but China still faces overheating risks in many parts of the economy. Output fell to 58.2 , new orders slid to 54.8 and input decreased to 58.9 . The HSBC China manufacturing index fell to 52.7 in May, the lowest since June 2009. Chinese policy makers are trimming stimulus this year after the $1.4 trillion lending that revived growth in 2009. Restraining inflation expectations and keeping housing affordable are two of the government’s key goals after urban property prices jumped a record 12.8% in April from a year earlier.

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